It’s that time again. Pitchfork releases their top albums of the year tomorrow, and, based on the past year’s reviews and their overall tendencies, I handicap the order. Play along in the comments.

1. Girls- Father, Son, Holy Ghost- When doing this, you have to remember how scores are tabulated. All the critics—who have different tastes and specialties—rank their albums, and overall points rule the day. So the number one is rarely something daring and singular; it’s something unimpeachable—something everyone likes. Girls sounds right here.

2. Bon Iver- Bon Iver- This will be a close number two, but there will be a few contrarians who don’t rank it highly on their ballots because it seems like the obvious choice.

3. Fucked Up- David Comes to Life- Since there isn’t a legit metal album well-received enough to place, this gets all the stray hard-core votes.

4. M83- Hurry Up We’re Dreaming- Again, everyone likes this record. It can’t be too high though, since the best track of the year never lines up with the best album of the year.

5. Destroyer- Kaputt- He’s a Pitchfork favorite, and a solid showing on the best tracks list convinced me he’d be top five.

6. Drake- Take Care- There were few critically-acclaimed hip-hop albums this year, so the rap writers will rally around this. It won’t be any higher though because a) Drake has his haters, and b) a rap album was number one last year. Schrieber knows where his bread is buttered.

7. Kurt Vile- Smoke Ring for My Halo- Because the honorable mentions surprisingly had Cass McCombs on them, the singer-songwriter camp apparently got behind Vile. He’ll be somewhere in the top ten.

8. The Weeknd- House of Balloons- Even though it was released early in the year and might be canceled out by The Weeknd’s other mixtape, House of Balloons feels like a safe zeitgeisty pick. P4k wouldn’t want someone looking at the list five years from now and not seeing what will go down as an Important Album.

9. PJ Harvey- Let England Shake- For whatever reason, people love this. Especially among the over-thirty writers, she’ll get a lot of votes.

10. James Blake- James Blake- Had this album come out later, before the backlash set in, this would have been top three. As it stands, the writers who loved it will outnumber the writers who hated it.

11. Oneohtrix Point Never- Replica- I might be wrong here, since I don’t know where else the experimental music enthusiasts’ votes would go. I wouldn’t be surprised if this snuck into the top five.

12. St. Vincent- Strange Mercy- Another piece-of-shit album that Pitchfork writers love.

13. Jay-Z and Kanye West- Watch the Throne- It’s a divisive album, but people have warmed up to it over time; and it will benefit from a down-year in rap.

14. Real Estate- Days- No one hates this album, but no one really loves it either. It will be on a lot of lists, but it won’t be anyone’s favorite.

15. Washed Out- Within and Without- Chillwave lives. RIP Altered Zones.